中国服务业发展与城镇居民消费关系的实证分析  

Impacts of Service Industry Development on Urban Household Consumption in China

作　　者：毛中根[1,2] 洪涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]西南财经大学消费经济研究所 [3]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第12期125-133,共9页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金(08CJL007);国家自然科学基金(71103051);霍英东教育基金会项目(131085);中国博士后科学基金(2012M510665);西南财经大学课题(2011XG114);中国社会科学院创新工程项目<中国中长期服务经济发展战略研究>的资助

摘　　要：理论分析显示,服务业的发展将通过提高居民收入和改善收入分配等路径促进居民消费增长。本文引入路径分析方法,设计了两个步骤的实证方案:第一步,验证居民收入、收入分配对居民消费的影响;第二步,验证服务业发展与居民收入和收入分配的关系。同时,利用中国29省(市、区)1993-2010年的面板数据进行了计量检验。在此基础上,进一步分析了产业政策对服务业发展与居民消费关系的影响。结果表明,以2001年政策颁布为分界:2001年之后,服务业发展对居民消费产生了更大的促进作用。因此,产业结构优化升级和扩大消费需求具有内在一致性,而政策支持可以放大其积极效果。According to economic theories, the development of service industry increases household consumption by increasing income and improving income distribution. The authors proposed a two-step empirical analysis method to test this conclusion. Firstly, the authors tested the impact of income, income distribution and public services on household consumption; secondly, the impact of service industry on income and income distribution was tested. Using the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 1993 to 2010, the paper made theoretical analysis. In addition, it analyzed the relationship between industrial policies and service industries. As a result, it showed that industrial policies had influenced service industry in a different way since 2001, and industrial policies played a more important role in the process of industrial upgrading. Therefore, the upgrading of industrial structure and expansion of household consumption are consistent inherently, and industrial policies can improve the relationship between them.

关 键 词：服务业 居民消费 居民收入 劳动收入占比 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] F126.1F224