南方双季稻区农户水稻种植模式的决策行为分析——基于湖南省长沙县农户调查的实证研究  

Analysis of Rice Cropping Decision-Making in a Double-Cropping Rice Area of Southern China

作　　者：刘朝旭[1] 刘黎明[1] 彭倩[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《资源科学》2012年第12期2234-2241,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目:"高集约化农区土地利用系统过程模拟及其环境风险控制"(编号:41130526)

摘　　要：我国南方双季稻区农户的水稻种植决策行为对保障国家粮食安全极为重要。本文选择典型双季稻区湖南省长沙县作为研究样区,以312个农户调研数据为基础,构建了包括土地因素、农户因素、经济因素、区位因素、政策因素在内的Logistic模型,分析了农户水稻种植决策行为及其影响因素。结果表明:①研究区农户选择种植双季稻的比例较低,仅占被调查农户的55%,农户的水稻种植意愿存在着不断下降的趋势;②在农户的双季稻决策过程中,灌溉条件、人均农业补贴、户主文化程度、家庭人均可支配收入、土地经营规模是显著性最高的影响因素;③经过综合分析,比较效益低、劳动力缺乏、农地规模限制、灌溉条件制约是研究区农户双季稻种植积极性不高的主要原因。因此,粮食收购价格保护政策、农地流转政策、农资价格调控政策和农田水利建设相关政策是今后主要的政策调控方向。The decisions behind rice cropping patterns in a double-cropping rice area of southern China affect national food security. Changsha county in Hunan province is a typical double-cropping area, and the focal region in this study. Based on survey data collected from 312 farmer households, a logistic regression model was used that included land factors, farm household factors, economic factors, location factors and policy ＂factors. Planting decision-making behavior and influential factors were analyzed. We found that the proportion of households adopting double-cropping rice is low （55% of households）. Irrigation conditions, per-capita farm subsidies, schooling, per-capita disposable income and land scale were the most important influential factors in the double-cropping rice decision-making process. The challenges facing double-cropping rice systems are many. First, the increasing costs of agricultural production and increases in food income mean continued low net profit for farmers. Second, rapid increases in migrant worker salaries mean more people are leaving rural areas. Third, stagnation of rural land system reform and infrastructure construction has resulted in small-scale farm land and poor irrigation conditions. In order to enlarge the rice planting area in southern China, policies should concentrate on the control of agricultural production prices, strengthening and improving food subsidies, boosting the mechanism of land circulation, and promoting irrigation infrastructure. Policies for food purchasing price should reflect reasonable pricing to grant subsidies and ensure stable expected return for farmers. Farmland circulation policies that allow for land circulation and concentration should promote moderate scale operation. The state should regulate the price of agricultural inputs and formulate reasonable prices according to the fluctuation of food prices. Last, policies for the construction of farmland irrigation infrastructure and that reduce infrastructure shortfalls should be developed.

关 键 词：双季稻区 土地利用方式 农户决策行为 水稻 粮食安全 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F224