长沙市旅行社成长规律研究——基于生存分析法的视角  

Study of Development Rule of Travel Agencies in Changsha——Based on Survival Analysis

作　　者：阎友兵[1] 陈喆芝[1] 颜南希 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学旅游管理学院,湖南湘潭411105 [2]普渡大学健康与人类科学学院

出　　处：《武陵学刊》2012年第6期31-37,共7页Journal of Wuling

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目"红色旅游开发绩效评价研究"(11FGL007);湘潭大学博士启动基金项目"湖南旅游产业转型与结构优化升级研究"

摘　　要：寿命表分析显示,1993至2010年间长沙市成立的273家旅行社在生存时间分布上呈现出明显的规律性:成立1年内所面临的倒闭风险非常小,2～5年是优胜劣汰关键考验期,6～10年旅行社将获得长足发展,经营年限超过10年的旅行社成为了市场领军队伍。Kaplan-Meier估计、Cox回归分析显示,注册资本、成立时间、企业形式、地理位置4个因素对旅行社生存具有显著影响。因此,政府部门通过提供政策扶持,协会组织进行信息引导,旅行企业调整经营策略等措施可促进长沙市旅游企业健康成长。Life table shows that the survival time distribution of travel agencies founded from 1993 to 2010 in Changsha displays obvious regularity： There is a very small failure risk within the first year; it is a key test period of selecting the superior and eliminating the inferior from the second year to the fifth year; agencies will make rapid progress from the sixth year to the tenth year; and the travel agencies whose survival time is longer than ten years compose the market leading team. Kaplan-Meier estimation and Cox regression analysis indicate that four factors （registered capital, establishing time, forms of enterprise organization and geographic location） have appreciable im- pact to the survival of travel agency. Proposals are given in the article to promote the healthy growth of travel agencies in Changsha, such as government providing policy support, association supplying information guiding, and travel agency enterprise adjusting business strategy.

关 键 词：生存分析 旅行社 成长规律 长沙市 

分 类 号：F590.6[经济管理—旅游管理]