空间相关性对耕地保护决策的影响研究——以天津市宁河县大北涧沽镇为例  

Study on Impact of Spatial Correlation on Cultivated Land Preservation Decision——A Case Study in Dabeijiangu Town of Ninghe County,Tianjin

作　　者：乔荣锋[1] 高进云[2] 毕芳英[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387 [2]天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津300387 [3]天津市开垦征地事务中心,天津300221

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第1期59-64,共6页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"土地征收过程中农民福利变化研究"(11YJC630046);天津哲学社会科学规划课题"城镇化进程中农地非农化决策优化研究"(TJYY10-1-433);天津市高等学校人文社会科学研究一般项目"城乡结合部耕地生态价值补偿研究"(20102405)

摘　　要：采用空间经济计量方法研究空间相关性对耕地保护决策的影响。结果表明:除图斑面积变量外,土地用途、土壤质量、道路可及性、沟渠可及性及县城可及性等变量具有明显的空间自相关,包含空间特征的线性概率模型存在显著的误差空间自相关。由此得出:耕地利用具有空间自相关,制定耕地保护规划时应充分考虑现有地块用途;地块可及性对地块用途有显著影响,耕地保护措施应充分利用地块可及性;耕地保护规划应充分考虑特定地块用途变化的概率,并依据此来划定耕地保护区。This paper studies the influence of spatial correlation on cultivated land preservation deci- sion by using the method of spatial econometrics analysis. The result shows that variables like parcel use, soil quality,approximility to road and ditch and county center are spatial correlated distinctly except parcel area, and SAR model error is also significiently spatial correlated similarly. So it can be concluded that, firstly, government should seriously consider the current parcel＇s use when they make out the culti- vated land preservation plan because of spatial dependance among parcels. Secondly, the parcel＇s use con- version is affected remarkablely by its approximability, so government can control cultivated land loss by using it. Lastly, the probohility of cultivated land conversion should be considered, which can be used to draw up the preservation programme properly.

关 键 词：空间相关性 耕地保护 空间相邻矩阵 土地用途转换概率 线性概率模型 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]