基于SWAT模型的北江流域气候变化的水文响应  

Hydrologic Response of the Climatic Change Based on SWAT Model in Beijiang River Basin

作　　者：王兆礼[1,2] 沈艳[1,2] 宋立荣[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641 [3]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第34期16761-16764,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2010B065);国家自然科学基金项目(10972080);华南理工大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2009ZM0186)

摘　　要：[目的]建立SWAT分布式水文模型,模拟分析气候变化对北江流域径流的影响。[方法]以北江流域为研究对象,运用分布式水文模型SWAT对流域径流进行模拟,以流域出口石角站1961～1980年月流量数据对模型参数进行率定,用1981～1990年月流量数据对模型参数进行了验证。设置15种气候变化情景,利用率定好的SWAT模型模拟了未来气候变化对北江流域径流的影响。[结果]SWAT模型模拟精度较高,可用于北江流域径流模拟。在降水量不变的情况下,温度升高将会使蒸发量增大,径流深减小;气温保持不变时,降水量增加会使蒸发量和径流深有所增加。[结论]该研究可为北江流域水资源管理提供参考依据。[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang RiCer basin as research object, SWAT model was used to simulate runoff. Monthly flow rate in Shizui station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter, and monthly flow rate from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify. Set- ting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Resuhl Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high and could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin. Under the situ- ation of invariable rainfall, temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased, and runoff depth decreased. When temperature un- changed, rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat. [ Conclusion] The research could provide ref- erence basis for water resource management in Beijiang River basin.

关 键 词：气候变化 SWAT模型 径流模拟 北江流域 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]