中国逆周期资本缓冲的“挂钩变量”选择:一个实证评估  

Selection of "Signaling Variables" in the Chinese Countercyclical Capital Buffer:An Empirical Evaluation

作　　者：陈雨露[1] 马勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融政策研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《教学与研究》2012年第12期5-16,共12页Teaching and Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善金融宏观调控体系研究"(项目号:12&ZD089);国家自然科学基金项目"宏观审慎政策体系与实施方案研究"(项目号:71150003);北京市教育委员会共建项目"中国货币国际化战略研究"资助

摘　　要：本文基于三个不同的"挂钩变量",对中国逆周期资本缓冲的实施方案进行了模拟分析,结果表明:随着中国的金融体系在2002年和2006年先后出现两次显著的结构性变迁,狭义信贷指标越来越难以反映金融体系的真实信用创造,而广义信贷和社会融资总量则更适合作为逆周期资本缓冲的"挂钩变量"。从实践角度来看,在一个动态变化的、不断发展的金融体系下,逆周期资本缓冲的实际操作既需要考察广义信贷指标,也需要考察社会融资总量,并在二者之间的对比和相互印证中提取出全面、真实的经济信息作为决策参考。The paper offers a simulation analysis of the implementation plan for countercyclical capital buffer in China. The results show that with the significant structural changes of the Chinese financial system in 2002 and 2006, it is increasingly difficult to resort to the narrowly defined credit index to reflect the real credit creation of the financial system, while the general credit and the aggregate financing to the real economy（AFRE） are more suitable to function as the ＂signaling variables＂ of countercyelical capital buffer. Examined from the practical perspective in a dynamic and continuously progressing financial system, the actual operation of countercyclical capital buffer requires inspections of both the general credit index and the AFRE. It is through contrast and confirmation of the two sets of data that true economic information can be obtained as reference for policy-making.

关 键 词：逆周期资本缓冲 挂钩变量 社会融资总量 银行信贷 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F224