我国不同收入组别与乘用车市场的相关性研究  

The Correlation Study of Income Groups and the Sales of China's Passenger Vehicle

作　　者：马云泽[1] 吴叶[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学系,天津300071

出　　处：《南通大学学报（社会科学版）》2012年第6期102-107,共6页Journal of Nantong University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学青年基金项目(09CJY042);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(09JZD0018);南开大学文科科研创新基金项目(NKC1008)

摘　　要：汽车业作为我国经济的重要组成部分,对很多产业的发展起到了关联带动作用。从销量增量及其占汽车总销量比例看,乘用车已然成为2011年以来汽车产业发展的主要推动力。在当今中国经济高速增长过程中,收入是影响中国乘用车需求的主要因素。从收入的角度把全国31个省市划分为三种收入组别,利用2006年到2011年收入与乘用车销量的季度数据,建立面板模型,得出了两者的可度量的相关性关系,同时也为以后预测乘用车销量和拐点打下了基础。The automotive industry is an important part of China＇s economy,and has a connection leading role for many industries.Since the beginning of 2011,from the proportion of passenger car sales to car sales and the incremental sales of passenger vehicle,passenger vehicle has become the main force driving the growth of automobile industry.In today＇s rapid economic growth process,income is the main factor affecting the demand of Chinese passenger vehicle market.From the perspective of income,this paper divided the country＇s 31 provinces into three income groups,and made use of the seasonal data of income and passenger vehicles from 2006 to 2011 to establish a panel model.Finally this paper achieves the measurable correlation relationship between income and sales of passenger vehicle,and lays the foundation of the forecast of the sales and the inflection point of passenger vehicles.

关 键 词：收入 乘用车 季节销量 面板模型 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济]