基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的槟栉盾蚧在中国的潜在地理分布研究  

Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Hemiberlesia rapax in China using CLIMEX and ArcGIS

作　　者：方焱[1] 李志红[1] 黄冠胜[2] 吴杏霞[2] 傅辽[1] 吕文诚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100193 [2]国家质量监督检验检疫总局,北京100088

出　　处：《植物保护》2012年第6期59-64,71,共7页Plant Protection

基　　金：农业部"948"项目(2012-Z15);国家质检总局标法中心项目(201005510110175)

摘　　要：槟栉盾蚧[Hemiberlesia rapax(Comstock)],隶属于同翅目(Homoptera),盾蚧科(Diaspididae),栉圆盾蚧属(Hemiberlesia),是我国进境水果检疫所关注的害虫。根据槟栉盾蚧的已知地理分布及其相关的气候参数,运用CLIMEX适生性分析软件及ArcGIS地理信息系统,对该虫在我国的适生性进行了分析。研究结果显示:目前气候条件下,适生区面积约为全国面积的42.48%,其中低度适生区占6.67%,中度适生区占4.09%,高度适生区占31.72%。基于中国未来气候的预测结果显示,2020年和2050年,适生区面积分别增至46.49%和49.1%,其中低、中度适生区所占比例均有所上升。鉴于槟栉盾蚧在我国的适生性研究结果,建议对其加大检疫力度,采取相应的防控措施,严防该虫的入侵和扩散。Hemiberlesia rapax(Comstock) belongs to Hemiberlesia(Homoptera: Diaspididae),which is one of the quarantine fruit pests in China.According to the known distribution of H.rapax and its related climate parameters,the CLIMEX and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographical distribution area of this insect pest.42.48% areas of China was predicted as potential suitable regions under current climate conditions,of which 6.67% were low-probability suitable areas,4.09% medium-probability suitable areas,31.72% high-probability suitable areas.Based on the future climate of China,it was predicted that the potential suitable regions increased to 46.49% and 49.1% by 2020 and 2050,respectively.The low-probability suitable areas and the medium-probability suitable areas increased.In order to prevent the invasion and spread of H.rapax,the quarantine and monitoring measures should be enhanced in China.

关 键 词：槟栉盾蚧 CLIMEX ARCGIS 潜在地理分布 气候变化 

分 类 号：S41-30[农业科学—植物保护]