区域性大型活动卫生保障二次供水风险评价指标及模型的建立  

Establishment of risk assessment index system and model for secondary water supplies for regional mass gathering events

作　　者：冯国柱[1] 谈立峰[1] 郝东平[1] 

机构地区：[1]常州市卫生监督所,江苏常州213003

出　　处：《中国卫生监督杂志》2012年第6期527-531,共5页Chinese Journal of Health Inspection

基　　金：常州市科技局立项项目(CS20109006);常州市卫生局资助重大科技项目(ZD2010015)

摘　　要：目的探讨区域性大型活动卫生保障二次供水风险评价指标,建立风险评价模型,为区域性大型活动接待单位的事先遴选和开展二次供水卫生保障工作提供科学依据。方法采用Delphi专家咨询法方法研究确定二次供水风险评价指标体系及其权重;采用综合指数法建立线形风险评价模型。结果 30名咨询专家的平均专业工作经历为20.63±5.80年,两轮的应答率均为100%,权威系数分别为0.86±0.06、0.89±0.06,Kendall协调系数分别为0.761(X2=292.348,P<0.01),0.906(X2=363.588,P<0.01),经卡方检验均具有统计学意义;确定了区域性大型活动卫生保障二次供水风险评价的一级指标3项、二级指标10项,以及各项指标的权重,其中一级指标卫生管理、设施管理、水质管理的平均权重分别为2.02、3.94和4.04;建立了线形风险评价模型。结论区域性大型活动卫生保障二次供水线形风险评价模型的建立可为二次供水卫生保障工作提供科学依据,具有推广应用价值。Objective To discuss the risk evaluation indicators and model for secondary water supply health security during regional mass gathering and offer scientific bases for prior selection of the reception unit as well as the public health security of regional mass gathering. Methods Delphi expert consultation method was used to establish the indicator system for the risk evaluation on the secondary water supply health security during regional mass gathering, and to determine the weights of the indicators. Furthermore, the comprehensive index method was used to establish the linear risk evaluation model. Results The average length of professional service of the thirty experts was 20. 63＋_5.80 years. And the response rates of two rounds of consultation from the experts were both 100%, the average coefficient of experts＇ authorities were 0. 86±0. 06, 0. 89 ±0. 06. And Kendall＇ s coefficient were 0. 761 （ X2 = 292. 348, P〈0. 01 ）, 0. 906（X2 = 363.588 ,P〈0. 01 ）. Three first-class indicators, ten second-class indicators for risk evaluation on the secondary water supply health security were identified. And the weights of the indicators were established. The average weights of hygiene management, installation management and water quality management were 2.02, 3.94 and 4. 04, respectively. Moreover, the linear risk evaluation model was established. Conclusion The establishment of the risk evaluation model for the secondary water supply health security during regional mass gathering provides scientific evidence and technical support for public health security of regional mass gathering, which is worthy of wide spreading.

关 键 词：区域性大型活动 卫生保障 二次供水 风险评价模型 Delphi专家咨询法 综合指数法 

分 类 号：R123.5[医药卫生—环境卫生学]