气候变化背景下山东盛夏降水异常成因及预测研究  

Research of Abnormity and Prediction for Midsummer Rainfall in Shandong Province in Climate Change Background

作　　者：顾伟宗[1,2,3] 张莉[4] 王辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [3]山东省气候中心,山东济南250031 [4]山东省气象局,山东济南250031

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第12期8-13,共6页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家科技部科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC29B04;2009BAC51B05);行业专项(GYHY200906015)资助

摘　　要：利用山东省26站降水资料、NCAR/NCEP再分析资料和NOAA海表温度资料,分析了山东盛夏降水变化特征,异常成因以及与前期全球海温的关系。结果显示,山东盛夏降水具有明显的年代际变化特征,且存在6a左右的周期,与500hPa高度场WP遥相关型关系密切;影响山东盛夏降水的前期冬季海温主要位于太平洋南美洲以西、大西洋墨西哥湾海域。利用上述海域海温建立预测模型能够很好的预测出山东盛夏降水的变化趋势,对山东盛夏降水预测有一定的参考价值。The abnormality of midsummer rainfall and its relationship with SST are researched, by using of the precipitation data in Shandong province, NCAR/NCEP reannalysis data and NOAA SST. The rainfall of midsummer in Shandong appeared interdecadal character and presented a distinct period of 6-year. The precipitation of midsummer had a closely relationship with the WP remote correlation pattern on 500hPa. The key area of SST in previous winter which influenced rainfall of midsummer located on the west of South America in South Pacific and vicinity of Mexican in Atlantic. The prediction model based on the SST of key area could predict the tendency of rainfall of Shandong in midsummer. It was a better worthwhile proof for the prediction of precipitation in midsummer.

关 键 词：盛夏降水 大气环流 海温 

分 类 号：P426.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]