A Regional Ensemble Forecast System for Stratiform Precipitation Events in the Northern China Region.Part Ⅱ:Seasonal Evaluation for Summer 2010  

作　　者：朱江山 孔凡铀 雷恒池 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms,University of Oklahoma

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2013年第1期15-28,共14页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40875079)

摘　　要：In this study, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences - regional ensemble forecast system （IAP-REFS） described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer season of 2010. The verification results show that IAP-REFS is skillful for quantitative precipitation forecasts （QPF） and probabilistic QPF, but it has a systematic bias in forecasting near-surface variables. Applying a 7-day running mean bias correction to the forecasts of near-surface variables remarkably improved the reliability of the forecasts. In this study, the perturbation extraction and inflation method （proposed with the single case study in Part I） was further applied to the full season with different inflation factors. This method increased the ensemble spread and improved the accuracy of forecasts of precipitation and near-surface variables. The seasonal mean profiles of the IAP-REFS ensemble indicate good spread among ensemble members and some model biases at certain vertical levels.In this study, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences - regional ensemble forecast system （IAP-REFS） described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer season of 2010. The verification results show that IAP-REFS is skillful for quantitative precipitation forecasts （QPF） and probabilistic QPF, but it has a systematic bias in forecasting near-surface variables. Applying a 7-day running mean bias correction to the forecasts of near-surface variables remarkably improved the reliability of the forecasts. In this study, the perturbation extraction and inflation method （proposed with the single case study in Part I） was further applied to the full season with different inflation factors. This method increased the ensemble spread and improved the accuracy of forecasts of precipitation and near-surface variables. The seasonal mean profiles of the IAP-REFS ensemble indicate good spread among ensemble members and some model biases at certain vertical levels.

关 键 词：short-range ensemble forecast rain enhancement operation probabilistic forecast 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]