浙江省农业面源污染的库兹涅茨曲线验证  

Authentication of Kuznets curve on agricultural non-point source pollution in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：赵连阁[1] 徐建芬[1] 王学渊[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《浙江农业学报》2012年第6期1079-1085,共7页Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70903060);浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y6110705;Y6090552);浙江省科技厅软科学重点项目(2010C25062);浙江工商大学研究生科研创新基金项目(1050XJ1511057)

摘　　要：选取1995—2010年浙江省农业面源污染指标及经济增长数据,采用EKC模型,验证浙江省农业面源污染与经济增长之间是否存在"倒U型"关系,并深入考察二者之间的相互影响和演替规律。研究结果表明:从整体上来说,浙江省农业面源污染物排放量与人均GDP之间确实存在显著的"倒U型"曲线关系;浙江省农业面源污染已经进入转折期,随着经济的发展,污染物排放量将会呈下降趋势。然而,由于EKC只是对环境质量将来可能走势的一种描述,并不是预测,在实际运用中还存在诸如计量模型过于简单、数据指标不全面等问题,因而不可盲目相信EKC假说;环境质量的改善不会随经济的增长而自动发生,浙江省的农业环境保护仍然面临着经济快速增长,环境质量改善和环境风险防范三重压力,仍需加大对环境保护的宣传和治理力度,可从经济环境政策、农民素质、技术进步等方面入手来改善环境质量。Based on the data of agricultural non-point source pollution emissions and economic development indica- tors from 1995 to 2010 in Zhejiang Province, we used EKC model to verify whether the relationship between Zhejiang agricultural non-point source pollution and economic development showed inverted U-shape. The results showed that the curve which represents the relationship between Zhejiang agricultural non-point source pollution emissions and the real GDP per capita was a typical inverted U-shape curve. At present, it is the turning period of Zhejiang agricultural non-point source pollution and the pollution emission will reduce as the economy developed. However, since EKC is just a description of the future trend of environmental quality, not a forecast. There are still many problems in EKC theory, such as econometric model problem, metrics problem and so on. Thus it＇s wrong to believe the EKC hypothe- sis without thinking. Environmental quality will not improve automatically; the agricultural environment of Zhejiang province is still facing triple pressure of rapid economic growth, environmental quality improvement and environmen- tal risk prevention. We can improve environment by carrying out economic and environmental policy, improving people＇s quality and using technology.

关 键 词：EKC 农业面源污染 经济增长 浙江省 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]