基于Logistic模型的城乡统筹试验区农户土地流转意愿实证研究——以荆门市掇刀区为例  

Research of the Peasants' Land Circulating Will in Balancing Urban and Rural Development Pilot Area Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：曾子成[1] 刘骏[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学政治与行政学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第35期17332-17334,17338,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：教育部;财政部国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2012-1049719002)

摘　　要：为揭示城乡统筹试验区农户土地流转意愿特殊规律,以荆门市掇刀区实地调研数据为样本,选取经典Logistic模型分析验证。结果表明:年龄、文化水平、预期收益、劳动力数量、耕地面积、非农收入比、土地流转历史、与中心城镇距离、对城乡统筹相关政策了解程度9个因子影响显著,性别、是否为村镇干部、家庭人口数量、是否参加养老保险4个因子影响不显著。基层政府应充分认识并尊重农户意愿,结合城乡统筹配套政策,推进试验区农村土地流转。To reveal the special law of the peasants＇ land circulating will in coordinating urban and rural development pilot area,with the investigation date from Duodao District of Jingmen City for example,the classic Logistic model was adopted for analysis and validation.The results showed that age,education level,expected earning,quantity of labor force,agricultural acreage,proportion of non-agricultural income,history of land circulation,distance from the center of town,knowing degree of coordinating urban and rural development policy,these 9 factors have a significant effect;sex,whether for village cadres,quantity of family,whether to attend endowment insurance,these 4 factors have no significant effect.It was concluded that grass roots government should fully understand and respect for farmers＇ willingness,and combined with the coordinating policies to promote the circulation of rural land.

关 键 词：城乡统筹 土地流转 农户意愿 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：S28[农业科学—农业水土工程]