备件消耗预测方法研究  

Forecasting Method of Spare Parts Consumption

作　　者：但伟[1] 韩坤[1] 许艺[1] 

机构地区：[1]装甲兵工程学院,北京100072

出　　处：《物流科技》2012年第12期88-91,共4页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：准确的备件消耗预测是合理有效地进行备件保障各项工作的基础。文章研究了现有备件消耗预测方法,并将其分为三类:基于解析的方法、基于历史数据的方法和基于仿真的方法。对各类预测方法分别进行了详细的介绍,阐述了其适用条件和使用局限性,并对比分析了各方法的优缺点。最后指出了下一步的研究方向。Forecasting of spare parts consumption is foundation of spare parts support. In this paper, method existing for spare parts consumption forecast are divided into three classes, which include method based on analytic, method based on historical data, method based on simulation. Every method is introduced in detail, application condition and limitation is also discussed, advantage and drawback of each method is analyzed. At last, research direction is discussed.

关 键 词：备件消耗 预测 解析 历史数据 仿真 

分 类 号：E241[军事—军事理论]