水电站长期售电合约谈判方案的风险分析  

Risk analysis in long-term electricity sale contract negotiation schemes of hydropower station

作　　者：钟平安[1,2] 张卫国[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2012年第6期96-101,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2009BAC56B03)(2008BAB29B09);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)(2010CB951102)

摘　　要：合约电量的确定及其风险分析对于水力发电企业与电网的合约谈判具有重要意义。提出了利用水电站实际运行资料描述机组效率不确定性的方法;定义了一定容忍度下发电不足的风险;建立了考虑来水、机组效率不确定性的发电调度数学模型,并采用一次二阶矩法进行合约电量的风险分析评价,为合约电量的谈判提供参考依据。实例表明,建立的风险分析方法是可行的。Electricity sale contract scheduling and related risk analysis are important for hydropower companies to negotiate with power grid company.This paper proposes a method to describe the uncertainty in hydraulic units′ efficiency using operation data of hydropower station,and defines the risks of electricity generating shortage under various tolerance degrees.Then,we develop a hydropower operation model considering uncertainties in the inflow and the units′ efficiency,and solve this model with a first-order second-moment method.A case study is presented to verify the proposed method.This work would provide information and technical support to contract negotiation of electricity sale.

关 键 词：水利管理 合约谈判 风险分析 一次二阶矩法 

分 类 号：TV697.14[水利工程—水利水电工程]