对大宗商品周期趋势的深入分析——基于历史、供求和现实的视角  

In-depth Analysis of the Trend of Commodity Cycle: From the Perspective of History,Supply-Demand and Reality

作　　者：杨超[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国进出口银行总行,北京100031 [2]中国人民银行研究生部,北京100083

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2012年第12期1-6,共6页Contemporary Economic Management

摘　　要：今年以来,对大宗商品市场超级周期即将终结的声音不绝于耳,CRB指数1年来走出W型走势,不同类别大宗商品出现价格大幅波动,QE3引发市场对大宗商品价格升高的普遍预期。中国需求为原始动力的大宗商品牛市是否已然终结,发达国家普遍采取的量化宽松政策是否会引发全球大宗商品市场价格普涨成为近期热议的话题。Since the beginning of this year, voices arguing that the super cycle of commodity market is close to an end can often be heard. The CRB index shows a W-shape trend in 2012. The prices of different categories of commodities show obvious fluctuation. The third round of quantitative easing （QE3） strengthens the expectation that the price of the commodities will climb sooner or later. Whether China＇s powerful commodity market, driven mainly by demand, will cmue to an end and whether the quantitative easing policy adopted by the developed countries will lead to the rise of the prices of the commodities globally are the two hot topics recently.

关 键 词：大宗商品 超级周期 降负债 反衰退 量化宽松 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]