国际大豆价格波动及其影响因素分析  

Analysis on international soybean price fluctuation and its influencing factors

作　　者：刘洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海农林职业技术学院,上海201699

出　　处：《上海农业学报》2012年第4期148-151,共4页Acta Agriculturae Shanghai

摘　　要：根据1980-2009年联合国粮农组织的统计数据,分析了国际大豆价格的波动趋势,并构建协整模型对国际大豆价格波动的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:世界大豆出口量每增加1个百分点,国际大豆价格则下降2.17个百分点;世界人均实际GDP每增加1个百分点,国际大豆价格则上升4.71个百分点。The paper analyzed the trend of international soybean price fluctuation according to the FAO＇s statistical data between 1980- 2009, and made an empirical analysis of factors influencing international soybean price fluctuation by building a cointegration model. The result showed that the international soybean price would decrease by 2.17 percentage points if the soybean export amount in- creased by one percentage point in the world; but the international soybean price would increase by 4.71 percentage points if the world GDP per capita increased by one percentage point.

关 键 词：大豆 国际贸易 出口价格 价格弹性 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]