丽江旅游气候舒适度与年内客流量变化相关性分析  

A Correlation Analysis Between Climate Comfort Degree and Monthly Variation of Tourists in Lijiang

作　　者：曹伟宏[1] 何元庆[1] 李宗省[1] 王淑新[1] 王春凤[1,2] 常丽[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学西部环境与气候变化研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地理科学》2012年第12期1459-1464,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971019);冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主项目;国家自然科学基础人才培养基金冰川学冻土学特殊学科点(11J0930003);丽江市玉龙雪山管委会资助项目;中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划“西部博士资助项目”(O828A11001)资助

摘　　要：利用丽江1954-2009年的气候资料,对丽江旅游气候舒适度进行了评价,划分出其等级和旅游适宜期年内分布;结合2006-2010年丽江海外旅游、国内旅游的客流量月指数,在对气候舒适度及特殊影响因素赋值的基础上,采用OLS方法建立线性回归方程。结果显示:气候舒适度与旅游地年内客流量变化有密切关系。海外客流量年内变化分2个时段,在10月-次年4月干季,受气候舒适度影响极其显著,此外还受新年、圣诞假期的影响,海外客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.31%;在5-9月雨季则呈现较均匀分布状态,平均月指数为8.33%。国内游客客流量变化全年主要受气候舒适度影响,同时还受7、8月暑假及"十一"黄金周影响,客流量月指数气候弹性系数为0.56%。Climate comfortable degree is an important factor that influences the tourist destinations. It directly affects yearly variation of tourist traffic. This article, using climate data in the past 54 years （1954-2009）, makes a comment on the tourist climate comfort in Lijiang and divides grades of fitness and periodic distribu- tion. Combining monthly visitors index of overseas tourists and domestic tourists in Lijiang in the past five years, based on numerical value of climate comfortable degree and fictitious factors, OLS method was adopt to establish the correlation of monthly visitors index and related climate comfortable degree and fictitious fac- tors. The result shows that： 1） Yearly variation of overseas tourists is divided into two periods during the year. It is mainly affected by climate comfort degree in the dry season from October to April of the next year, and al- so affected by the New Year holiday. Monthly index of climatic coefficient of elasticity is 1.31%. It is more evenly distributed in the rainy season from May to September. The average monthly index of overseas tourism is 8.33%. 2） For domestic tourism, yearly variation of tourists is primarily affected by climate comfort degree during the year. Summer vacation in July and August, National Day ＂Golden Week＂ have effect also. The cor- relation of yearly variation of tourists and climate comfort degree is significantly. Monthly index of climatic co- efficient of elasticity is 0.56%. This study provides scientific basis for the forecast of yearly variation of tourist traffic, and the development of tourism in Lijiang.

关 键 词：气候舒适度 客流量变化 相关性分析 丽江 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]