青藏高原近40年来气候变化特征及湖泊环境响应  

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Lake Environment in the Tibetan Plateau in 1971-2008

作　　者：姜永见[1,2] 李世杰[1,3] 沈德福[4] 陈炜[1] 金传芳[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,湖泊与环境国家重点实验室,江苏南京210008 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院地球化学研究所,贵州贵阳550002 [4]安徽科技学院城建与环境学院,安徽滁州233100

出　　处：《地理科学》2012年第12期1503-1512,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：科技部基础性工作专项(2006FY110600)资助

摘　　要：以青藏高原52个气象台站1971-2008年的逐月气温、降水资料为基础,采用因子分析、气候趋势分析、气候突变分析等方法,对高原内部不同区域的气候变化特征进行研究,并讨论了高原湖泊环境对气候变化的响应。结果表明,近40 a来,青藏高原各区域年平均气温整体持续上升,柴达木地区增温尤为显著,年平均气温增长率达0.49℃/10a;1987年和1998年各区域气温普遍由低向高突变,1998年以来增温尤为显著。年可利用降水的变化特征存在区域差异,柴达木地区、藏北南羌塘高原东部地区整体增湿。除藏东地区,青藏高原其它地区气候条件于20世纪末21世纪初由暖干向暖湿转变,受其影响,以青海湖、鄂陵湖、冬给措纳、兹格塘错为代表的高原大型湖泊表现出水位上升、湖水离子浓度减小的特征,反映了气候暖湿条件下湖泊水量的增加。Regional climate changes in different regions in the Tibetan Plateau in 1971 ~2008 are analyzed based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data from 52 meteorological stations. Regional weighted average values of meteorological elements are calculated by factor analysis. Rate of linear tendency and moving t-test are used to indicate the change trends and detect abrupt changes of meteorological elements respectively. Be- sides, lake environment changes in the Tibetan Plateau are discussed as the responses to the regional climate changes. The results show that the annual mean temperature has continued to rise at the rate of 0.22-0.49℃/ 10a in all the subregions in the Tibetan Plateau in recent 40 years, the increase of annual mean temperature is particularly significant in the Qaidam region with a warming rate of 0.49 ℃/10a. The annual mean temperature experienced two abrupt changes from low to high in 1987 and 1998 respectively and the latter is more signifi- cant than the former. The interannual variations of annual available precipitation show some differences among the subregions in the Tibetan Plateau, an overall trend of humidification is found in the Qaidam region and the east part of south Qiangtang Plateau in the northern Tibet. The variation of lake environment is affected by the climate change in the Tibetan Plateau notably. The increase and decrease of lake water volume are correspond- ing with humid and dry period of climate. Climatic condition has shifted from warm-dry to warm-humid since the late 20th century or early 21 st century in Qinghai, the northern and southern Tibet. In some large lakes such as Qinghai Lake, Eling Lake, Donggi Conag Lake and Zige Tangco Lake in the Tibetan Plateau, water level has risen and water ion concentration has decreased in recent years, which reflects the increase of lake water volume under the warm-humid climatic conditions.

关 键 词：青藏高原 气候变化 湖泊环境 区域差异 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P941.78