中国大陆8级大震有序网络结构及其预测研究  

Research on ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes and its prediction in China's Mainland

作　　者：门可佩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第5期466-475,共10页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：中国是一个多地震的国家,1303—2011年的700多年间,中国大陆共发生M≥8大震23次,呈现出显著的自组织有序性,其主要有序值为252～258a,108～112a,94～98a,44～47a,24～25a,16～19a和11～14a.以翁文波信息预测理论为指导,将有序性分析与复杂网络技术相结合,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的大震中长期预测方法,构建了中国大陆8级大震信息有序网络结构.在总结21世纪初中国大陆西部所发生的2次8级大震(2001年昆仑山8.1级大震、2008年汶川8.0级大震)预测研究的基础上,根据所建网络结构对中国大陆未来8级大震提出中长期预测意见:2022、2026、2045、2065年前后仍有可能发生M≥8大震.研究结果表明,大震是可以预测的,大震形成的机制具有网络特性.有序网络方法是大震中长期跨越式预测的有效方法.China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the orld. A total of 23 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in China's Mainland from 1303 to 2011. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness. The main ordered values are 252-258 a, 108-112 a, 94-98 a,44-47 a,24- 25 a, 16-19 a and 11-14 a. According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, we build the informational ordered network structure of M ~〉 8 great earthquakes in China's Mainland, and summarize the prediction research on two great earthquakes （the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake） during the beginning of the 21^st century in western China's Mainland. At last, we present new prediction opinion that the future M≥8 great earthquakes will probably occur in 2022, 2026,2045 and 2065 pre and post in China's Mainland. The results show that an M≥8 great earthquake can be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes. Ordered network method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for M≥8 great earthquakes.

关 键 词：中国大陆 信息有序网络结构 昆仑山地震 汶川地震 大震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]