高速机动反舰导弹对舰艇编队的威胁估计研究  

Threat Evaluation of High-Speed Maneuvering Antiship Missile to Fleet

作　　者：曾松林[1] 王文恽[1] 刘阳[1] 代进进[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《现代防御技术》2012年第6期33-38,58,共7页Modern Defence Technology

基　　金：航空科学基金(20095184)

摘　　要：威胁估计是一个高度复杂、不确定性事件的推理过程。针对以目标特征为参数计算高速机动反舰导弹对编队的威胁值出现振荡而影响威胁排序的问题,首先运用自组织映射神经网络(SOM)提取高速机动反舰导弹的某些重要特征,其次融合提取的特征计算反舰导弹的航向,然后根据航向计算得到反舰导弹稳定的飞临时间和航路捷径,最后在分析影响威胁估计因素的基础上,运用模糊动态贝叶斯网络进行推理得到威胁值,再结合舰艇的价值系数便可计算得到稳定的威胁排序。仿真结果表明,该方法可以有效解决高速机动反舰导弹的威胁估计问题。Threat evaluation is a very complicated and uncertainty event reasoning process. A meth- od is proposed to solve the problem of the oscillating of threat values of high-speed maneuvering antiship missile to a warship formation calculated by using target maps network （SOM） is used to extract some important feature as parameters. Firstly, a self-organizing features from highly maneuvering antiship mis- sile. Then based on fusing the extracted features, the direction of advance of antiship missile is calculat- ed. Next, steady reach time and vertical distance of antiship missile is calculated based on the direction of advance. Lastly, based on analyzing influential factor to threat evaluation, the fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network is adopted to calculate threat value. Finally, combined with value coefficient of each warship the steady threat ordering can be obtained. The simulation result shows that this method may solve problem of computing threat values of high-speed maneuvering antiship missile effectively.

关 键 词：威胁估计 高速机动 弹道平滑 模糊动态贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：TN761.14[电子电信—电路与系统] E917[军事]