1960-2009年中国年降水量的年际及年代际变化特征  

Analysis on Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Annual Rainfall over China During 1960—2009

作　　者：孙秀博[1,2] 李清泉[2] 魏敏[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [3]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2012年第12期1464-1472,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955203);国家高技术研究发展计划(2010AA012403和2010AA012404);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106022);国家自然科学基金(41175065)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1960—2009年中国台站降水量资料,揭示了全国、区域年降水量变化的多时间尺度的复杂结构和地区性差异,并根据年代际周期对未来降水量变化的贡献进行了预估。我国北方年降水量年际变化较强,年际变化对年降水量的贡献较大;南方年降水量年际变化相对较弱,年际变化对降水量的贡献较小,东北和西北地区年降水量的年代际变化较强,年代际变化明显,且同位相;其他地区年降水量年代际变化相对较弱。我国东北、西北、华南、青藏高原、西南地区年降水量的年代际变率对年降水量的贡献目前处于下降阶段,未来5～10年年代际变化的贡献可能继续呈下降趋势;长江中下游地区年降水量的年代际变率对年降水量的贡献目前处于上升阶段,未来5～10年年代际变化的贡献可能继续呈上升趋势。Based on the rainfall data from meteorological observation stations in China from 1960 to 2009, the multi-time scale complex construction and notably regional differences of annual precipitation variabili- ty have been revealed and the precipitation changes in the future also projected according to the interdec- adal period. The fluctuant energy of annual precipitation in the northern part of China is larger, and so is the contribution of interannual variation. However, the reality in the southern part of China is reverse. Unlike other regions, the interdecadal variabilities of annual precipitation in the Northeast China and Northwest China are remarkable and in the same phase. At present, the contribution of interdecadal varia- bilities to the annual precipitation in Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, Tibetan Plateau, and Southwest is in decreasing phase, and tends to keep on going down in the future 5--10 years. Howev- er it is in the ascendant phase and tends to keep on rising in the future 5--10 years in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

关 键 词：MORLET小波 年降水量 年际变化 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P426.613[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]