基于江苏省公众气象服务效益的分析与研究  

Benefit Analysis and Study of Public Meteorological Services in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：于庚康[1] 申双和[2] 罗艳[3] 黄亮[1] 徐敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象局,南京210008 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [3]安徽省气象局,合肥230061

出　　处：《气象》2012年第12期1546-1553,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：江苏省科学技术厅科技创新与成果转化项目(BM2008163);江苏省气象科研开放基金项目(K200904)共同资助

摘　　要：为了全面了解江苏省公众气象服务的现状以及为提升气象服务水平提供依据,2010年在江苏省范围内开展了公众气象服务调查,通过回收有效问卷,对公众获取气象信息的渠道、关注气象信息的情况、对天气预报准确率和满意率评价、对气象指数的关注程度以及公众参保意愿等进行了全面统计与分析。主要结果表明:目前,江苏省公众获取气象信息的主要渠道是电视、手机和网络;平时最关注的气象信息是未来1～3天的逐日天气预报;认为目前天气预报非常准确、准确和基本准确的比例共为94.9%,对目前天气预报服务总体状况评价为非常满意、满意、基本满意的共占92.9%。另外,对公众气象服务的经济效益也进行了评估,并对影子价格、自愿付费和节省费用法进行了对比,经比较发现"节省费用法"评估结果相对客观真实,即2010年江苏省公众气象服务效益约为8.66亿元。In order to understand the present situation of public meteorological service in Jiangsu Province and provide scientific basis for promoting the weather service standard, a large-scale scientific and system- atic survey has been conducted for the public in 2010. Through collecting and analyzing the data from the social questionnaires, the following topics such as the channels of meteorological information, the public＇s attention to the meteorological information, the proportion of the public＇s attention to meteorological in- dex, the public＇s assessment of accuracy of weather forecasts and meteorological services and meteorologi- cal insurance were studied separately. The results showed that： （1） the main channels are TV, mobile phones and networks to getting public meteorological information in Jiangsu. （2） The daily weather fore- cast on future 1--3 days are more eoneerned by public than all of the others. （3） The percentage of re- spondents who think current situation of meteorological services very satisfied and satisfied and basically satisfied reaches 94.9 % and the percentage of those who think weather forecast very accurate and accurate and basically accurate reaches 92.9%. In addition, the economic benefit of public meteorological service has also been evaluated in this paper by the methods of shadow price, voluntary payment and cost-saving respectively. The assessment result through cost-saving is relatively objective and the value of economicbenefit of public meteorological services in Jiangsu Province is about O. 866 billion yuan.

关 键 词：气象服务 调查 效益评估 江苏省 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]