一种适用于可靠性评估的电网设备时变停运模型  

A New Time-varying Component Outage Model for Power System Reliability Analysis

作　　者：汲国强[1] 张伯明[1] 吴文传[1] 孙宏斌[1] 宁辽逸[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084 [2]辽宁省电力有限公司技术经济咨询研究中心,辽宁省沈阳市110015

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2013年第1期56-62,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A118);国家自然科学基金项目(51177080);教育新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-11-0281)~~

摘　　要：建立精确的元件停运模型是电力系统中长期可靠性评估的基础工作,现有的元件停运模型通常不能反映元件时变的运行工况和维修对元件的影响。采用阶梯函数来近似模拟元件老化故障率曲线,并基于更新过程理论建立了元件时变停运模型。该模型可以反映中长期可靠性评估中时间对老化故障率的增长效应和维修对老化故障率的降低效应。实际的变压器算例表明,该模型适合模拟任意老化故障率曲线,可用于老化模式已知的元件寿命分布函数和可用度稳态值的评估。相比于传统模型,所提模型具有更好的精度和更广的适用性。It is a fundamental work to develop accurate component outage model for reliability analysis in power system. The traditional outage model cannot reflect the impact of the time-varying factors in the operating conditions and the repair after failure. In this paper, a staircase function is used to approximate the deterioration failure rate curve and a renewal process based model is proposed to estimate time-varying failure probabilities. The proposed time-varying outage model can both reflect the effects on failure rate caused by both components＇ deterioration and repair activities in long terms. An example of a real transformer shows that the proposed model can precisely predict life cumulative probability distribution and steady state of availability. Compared to traditional constant model, the model proposed in this paper is more accurate and practical.

关 键 词：电网设备 可靠性评估 老化故障率 更新过程 停运模型 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]