表征内部潜伏性故障的变压器时变停运模型研究  

Time-varying Outage Model for Transformers Representing Internal Latent Fault

作　　者：郭创新[1] 王越[1] 王媚[2] 尹玉娟[1] 文云峰[1] 张金江[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]上海市电力公司,上海市闸北区200072 [3]浙江科技学院自动化与电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310023

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2013年第1期63-69,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家863高技术基金项目(SQ2010AA0522555001;SQ2010AA0500165004);国家自然科学基金项目(51177143);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20090101110058)~~

摘　　要：变压器在运行过程中,绝缘油中会有溶解气体产生。由经验可知,油中气体的含量可反映变压器健康状态,而产气速率则反映了该状态下器身内部潜伏性故障的发展程度。据此原理,建立适用于电力系统风险评估的变压器时变停运模型。模型首先根据气体含量进行变压器状态划分,并考虑实时修复的影响建立多状态马尔科夫模型,得出故障率基值。同时,基于产气速率建立时变停运指数模型,既体现变压器实时运行特性,又准确反映了变压器内部潜伏性故障的发展情况。通过算例分析对模型进行了验证,该模型为系统风险评估提供了基础。Dissolved gases come into being in the insulating oil during the operation of power transformers. By experience, it is known that the health state of transformers can be deduced from the content of the dissolved gasses and the development of the internal latent fault in that state can be estimated by the generating rate of the gasses. Based on this knowledge, the time-varying outage model for risk assessment of transformers was built. The transformer state was firstly identified by the quantity of the dissolved gas. Thus the multi-state Markov model was set up considering the maintenances to get the basic failure rate. Meanwhile, the time-varying exponential outage model was established based on the gas generating rate which reflects the operating characteristics as well as the development of the latent fault. The model is validated by case studies and provides reference foundation for the device risk assessment.

关 键 词：变压器潜伏性故障 时变故障率 时变停运模型 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]