北极航线通航环境评价  

Evaluation of Arctic route’s navigation environment

作　　者：李振福[1] 闫力 徐梦俏[1] 刘柏鹤[1] 马书孟[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]南通市港口管理局,江苏南通226006

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2013年第1期249-253,共5页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.61174166);国家社科基金(No.08BGJ007)

摘　　要：随着全球变暖,北极航线商业通航的可能性越来越大,北极航线受到越来越大的关注。通过北极航线的通航环境因素的分析,对北极航线通航环境进行评价,能够给未来北极航线的开发提供重要的借鉴作用。在总结北极航线现状及通航事故统计的基础上,构建了北极航线通航的评价指标体系,运用灰色模糊综合评价方法,对北极航线通航环境进行了初步评价。因为没有确切数据,指标值采用专家调查法来确定。经过分析,发现水文环境和助航设施及信息情报环境是影响北极通航的主要因素。其中,水文环境中最重要的是海冰密集度,助航设施及信息情报环境最主要的因素是破冰船和航行经验等。随着北极变暖,水文环境将逐渐转化,北极地区的助航设施及信息情报环境将逐渐成为北极通航环境的主要限制因素。研究结果能够为北极航线的利用和监控提供参考。Along with the development of global warming, the commercial navigation of the Arctic route is getting even more likely, and the whole world is paying more and more attention to it. The analysis of the factors that affecting the navigation environment together with the evaluation of the Arctic route＇ s navigation environment can provide important reference value for the further study of the Arctic route. Thus, based on the summarization of the status and the navigation accident statistics of the Arctic route, this paper establishes an evaluation index system of the Arctic route＇ s navigation environment and makes a prelimi- nary evaluation of the Arctic route＇ s navigation environment through a grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Since a lack of accurate data, the indexes＇ value is given by the expert grading method. Through analysis, it comes to conclude the hydrological factors, navigation aids and information factors are the main factors that affect the Arctic route＇ s navigation environment. Besides, the sea ice concentration, icebreaker and navigation experience are individually the primary factors of the hydrological environment, navigation aids and information environment. As the north pole goes warming, the hydrological environment will gradually transform, therefore, the navigation aids and information environment in the Arctic will gradually become the limiting factors of the Arctic route＇ s navigation environment. The results can provide some beneficial reference for the utilization and supervision of the Arctic route.

关 键 词：北极航线 通航环境 灰色模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TP39[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]