计及绿色能源出力不确定性的输电网线损率概率评估  

Probabilistic transmission loss rate evaluation under green energy generation uncertainty

作　　者：文旭[1] 颜伟[1] 黄淼[2] 贾晓峰[3] 李一铭[1] 林烨[4] 宋林滔[5] 

机构地区：[1]输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆400030 [2]重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院,重庆410014 [3]河北省电力公司石家庄电业局,河北石家庄050000 [4]浙江省电力公司台州电业局,浙江台州317000 [5]湖南省电力公司长沙电业局,湖南长沙410000

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2013年第1期169-175,共7页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51177178;51007098);输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目(2007DA10512710204);国家电网公司科技项目(KJ(2010)419)~~

摘　　要：针对目前输电网线损率评估方法不能满足节能降耗的需要,提出了计及绿色能源出力不确定性的输电网线损率概率评估方法。该方法包括系统状态模拟与蒙特卡罗抽样两部分。系统状态模拟包括绿色能源出力的模拟、负荷状态的模拟、机组日节能调度以及网络安全校正控制的模拟、厂站电压无功控制的模拟。在蒙特卡罗随机抽样时,基于上述系统状态模拟方法,通过对随机样本的状态调整与潮流计算确定输电网线损率的概率分布。最后,以某省级电网为例,验证了所提线损率概率评估方法的有效性。To respond to the situation that the existed methods for evaluating transmission loss rate can not fully meet the requirements of energy conservation, a novel method under the uncertainty of green energy generation is presented. The proposed method includes system states simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. System states simulation includes green energy generation simulation, electric loads simulation, daily energy-saving dispatching simulation, security constrained correction simulation, and substations/plants reactive power control simulation. The other part is the Monte Carlo simulation, in which the probabilistic distribution of the transmission loss rate is determined by power flow computation after the stochastic sample states are regulated by the system states simulation above. The simulation result in a provincial power grid proves its validity.

关 键 词：输电网线损率 概率评估 出力不确定性绿色能源 节能调度 蒙特卡罗模拟 节能降耗 

分 类 号：TM714.3[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]