敏感设备电压暂降严重程度可信性评价测度与方法  

Credibility measure and assessment method of sensitive equipment voltage sag severity

作　　者：刘旭娜[1] 肖先勇[1] 徐方维[1] 魏晓天 杨景岗 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,四川成都610065 [2]乐山电力股份有限公司,四川乐山614000

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2013年第1期190-196,共7页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50877049);四川省科技支撑计划资助项目(2010GZ0256)~~

摘　　要：为准确刻画电压暂降对敏感设备的严重程度,从设备响应的物理属性出发提出了满足设备响应状态不可加性时评价暂降严重程度的可信性测度,弥补经典概率测度和模糊测度需要大量样本、具有非对偶性等问题。利用模糊统计和多项式拟合法构造设备响应状态不确定区域内各暂降特征对应的设备耐受能力隶属函数,基于不确定性理论得到联合可信性分布函数,以此建立设备电压暂降严重程度评估模型。以实测样本为依据,对个人计算机(personal computers,PC)进行仿真,并与经典概率测度和可能性测度评估结果进行比较,证明了可信性测度的正确性和可信性,评估结果更符合实际。In order to accurately describe the equipments＇ severity caused by voltage sag, the credibility measure which meets the conditions of non-additive is proposed based on their physical properties of responses. This assessment measure can avoid the deficiencies that classical probability measure needs a large number of samples and the non-duality of fuzzy measure. The membership function of sensitive equipment voltage tolerance capability corresponding to the characteristic quantities in the status uncertain area is determined by fuzzy statistical method and polynomial fitting method. Then the joint credibility distribution function is deduced based on uncertainty theory. Hence, the assessment model of severity of equipments failure is constructed. Based on practical samples, the PCs are simulated using the proposed method. Comparing the simulation results with those of methods using classical probability measure and possibility measure, it proves that the proposed method is proper and credible and can reflect practical condition more obiectivelv.

关 键 词：电压暂降 非对偶性 不可加性 可信性测度 联合可信性分布 不确定性理论 

分 类 号：TM714.2[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]