基于逐步回归分析的海上原油反相点预测方法研究  

The Inverted Point Prediction Method for Offshore Oil Based on A Stepwise Regression

作　　者：付云[1] 尹洪超[1] 段林林[1] 王勇[1] 张铜耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中海油能源发展股份有限公司钻采工程研究院,天津塘沽300452

出　　处：《广东石油化工学院学报》2012年第6期69-72,共4页Journal of Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology

摘　　要：以渤海海域B油田群、Q油田群和s油田群油田原油物性和反相点为研究对象，用传统方法获取三个区块原油的9项物性参数。将社会科学统计sPss软件应用到研究原油反相点与原油物性之间关系的研究，建立了原油反相点与原油物性数据关系模型：y=364．838x1-1．081x4-1．176x，＋403．716。由模型可知，20℃密度、胶质含量和蜡含量与原油反相点最为密切。预测模型相对误差范围在0．07％-7．82％，误差小，模型准确性高。结果表明，在建立海上原油物性参数数据库后，利用数学预测模型，快速获取原油反相点数据，可克服传统方法装置庞大、操作复杂、耗时长等缺点。In this paper, relationship between inverted point and physical and chemical property of crude oil was lesearched in B oilfield group, Q oiltield group and S oilfield group, which were got by traditional methods. The results indicate that inverted point and physical and chemical property are well correlated with inverted point = - 364.838 ＊ density20℃ - 1.081 ＊ rein content- 1. 176 ＊ wax conten ＋ 403.716 （ n = 20; R2 = 0.878; P ≤ 0.001 ） by a stepwise regression using software SPSS for windows. Relatively error was between 0.07 % ~ 7.82%. We can obtain inverted point quickly after the establishment of physical and chemical parameters database. This approach will overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods such as large installation, complex operation and time - consuming.

关 键 词：海上原油 反相点 原油物性 SPSS软件 

分 类 号：TE5[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]