战略性利益:影响“蒙特利尔协议”达成的要因及其机理  

Strategic Interests and Ratification of the Montreal Protocol

作　　者：冯冰[1] 孔元[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学国际经济贸易系 [2]南开大学经济研究所

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2012年第4期181-202,共22页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073085);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJA790112)的资助

摘　　要："蒙特利尔协议"在控制臭氧层破坏物质方面取得了显著的效果,对于其签约影响因素应该考虑到政治、经济等多方面的原因,签约背后的战略性利益是签约的重要驱动力。本文采用结构方程模型估计了潜在战略利益、大国作用等因素对协议签约延迟的影响,结果发现获得战略性利益的能力越强,签约延迟时间越短;与既有结论相似,结果还发现一个国家越有影响力、受协议的负面影响越小、民主程度和开放程度越高,其签约动机就越强,签约延迟时间也越短。The Montreal Protocol is widely considered as the most successful environ- ment protection agreement. It＇s believed that the ratification of the protocol is influenced not only by environmental factors, but also by economic and political factors. The authors use a SEM framework to investigate the impacts of various country characteristics on the duration of time taken to ratify the protocol. The most significant finding is that the legislative delay is negatively correlated with a country＇s strategic interests. This finding is consistent with find- ings that democratic freedoms, a country＇s international influencesand openness shorten the delay of ratification.

关 键 词：蒙特利尔协议 战略利益签约 意愿签约延迟 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]