新疆和田河两支流丰枯遭遇分析  

Synchronous-Asynchronous encounter probability of rich-pool runoff about branches in Hotan River

作　　者：张晓伟[1] 张强[2] 段永涛 沈冰[4] 

机构地区：[1]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东广州510610 [2]水利部珠江水利委员会水政水资源处,广东广州510610 [3]中国水电顾问集团北京勘测设计研究院,北京100024 [4]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《人民珠江》2012年第6期26-31,共6页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779052)

摘　　要：和田河是是塔里木河三大源流之一,是和田绿洲生存的命脉。和田河两支流的丰枯变化直接影响着绿洲内各种经济活动和向塔里木河的输水。应用copula函数方法理论,建立了和田河两支流喀河、玉河年径流量的联合概率分布模型,并对两支流丰枯遭遇进行了研究。结果表明,用copula函数方法研究两支流的丰枯遭遇问题是可行、合理的。通过分析,得到以下主要结论:两支流年径流具有相同的边际分布,均服从皮尔逊Ш型;两支流同丰的概率大于同平、同枯的概率,绘制了两支流的联合分布等值线图,并对两支流的条件概率分布进行了研究,结果表明随着一条支流来水的增多,条件概率分布趋近于单变量的频率分布曲线。这些研究成果对和田绿洲灌溉水量优化配置和实时调度具有重要的现实意义与参考价值。Hotan river is the source of the life in hotan oasis and is an important source stream of Tarim river. The rich and pool chan- ges of the branches effect on economic activities in oasis. The copula theory was applied to construct the joint distribution of runoff in kahe river and yuhe river, which are two branches in hotan river. The synchronous - asynchronous encounter probability of rich - pool runoff was analyzed. The results show that two branches have the same boundary distribution： pearson HI distribution, and the encoun- ter frequency of synchronous rich is greater than synchronous pool and normal, and the contour map of the joint distribution was ob- tained. The conditional probability distribution of two branches was analyzed. The results show that with incoming water increase the conditional probability distribution approached the frequency distribution of a single variable. These results have important realistic meaning and reference value to rational exploitation and utilization of water - soil resources and the development of the irrigation agri- culture in hotan oasis.

关 键 词：和田河 支流 丰枯遭遇 频率分析 COPULA方法 

分 类 号：TV121.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]