Price Transmission in China's Swine Industry with an Application of MCM  

作　　者：XU Shi-wei LI Zhe-min CUI Li-guo DONG Xiao-xia KONG Fan-tao LI Gan-qiong 

机构地区：[1]Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) [2]Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture

出　　处：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》2012年第12期2097-2106,共10页农业科学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Key Projects of National Key Technology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04);the 948 Program of MoA of China(2012-Z1);the Technology and Construction of Agricultural Information Monitoring and Early Warning System of China(2012-ZL017)

摘　　要：The paper studies the relationship, adjustment ability, path, efficiency and intensity of price transmission in the swine industry chain in China, which consists of the prices of corn, compound feed for fattening pig, piglet, pig and pork. Monthly prices covering a period of 18 yr （1994-2011） are analyzed using a Market-Chain Cooperated Model （MCM）. The empirical results show that there exists a stable long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic relationship in the price system. First, the adjustment speed of each price series is very slow and the transmission path is top-down and one-way significantly. Second, the price from upstream to downstream lags about 2 mort, while there is no lag in price transmission from midstream to downstream. Third, in terms of price transmission intensity, the price of pig impacted greatly on pork price, not only in the current period but also through the whole period. Besides, the price of corn has the largest lagged effects on pork price. According to the above empirical results, we suggest that government should strengthen monitoring and early warning of the swine industry chain, especially the upstream and midstream, attach great importance to the timely adjustment of feed prices and perfect the measures of price subsidy.The paper studies the relationship, adjustment ability, path, efficiency and intensity of price transmission in the swine industry chain in China, which consists of the prices of corn, compound feed for fattening pig, piglet, pig and pork. Monthly prices covering a period of 18 yr （1994-2011） are analyzed using a Market-Chain Cooperated Model （MCM）. The empirical results show that there exists a stable long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic relationship in the price system. First, the adjustment speed of each price series is very slow and the transmission path is top-down and one-way significantly. Second, the price from upstream to downstream lags about 2 mort, while there is no lag in price transmission from midstream to downstream. Third, in terms of price transmission intensity, the price of pig impacted greatly on pork price, not only in the current period but also through the whole period. Besides, the price of corn has the largest lagged effects on pork price. According to the above empirical results, we suggest that government should strengthen monitoring and early warning of the swine industry chain, especially the upstream and midstream, attach great importance to the timely adjustment of feed prices and perfect the measures of price subsidy.

关 键 词：price transmission Market-Chain Cooperated Model swine industry chain 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]