基于滑坡风险评价的卡拉水电站坝址比选研究  

Study of dam site selection of Kala hydropower station based on landslide risk assessment

作　　者：权威[1,2] 谭跃虎[2] 李二兵[2] 徐辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]总参工程兵科研三所,河南洛阳471023 [2]中国人民解放军理工大学工程兵工程学院,南京210007 [3]中国水电顾问集团华东勘测设计研究院,杭州310014

出　　处：《岩土力学》2013年第1期250-258,共9页Rock and Soil Mechanics

摘　　要：以雅砻江卡拉水电站为例,针对滑坡群风险在水电工程坝址比选时的量化评价问题,在考虑滑坡体危险性分析和易损性分析的基础上,引入滑坡体工程影响系数、重要性系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数4个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动的影响,建立以年期望损失为指标的水电工程滑坡风险评价体系。在以坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标与清淤损失指标和涌浪破坏损失指标为标准的综合评价方法中,运用安全与经济相平衡原则,得出基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选结果。经实例计算,采用改进后的评价方法可得同一量纲下的计算分析比常规方法更具可比性,综合考虑可为坝址比选提供依据。Taking Kala hydropower station on the Yalong River for example,aiming at the problem of quantitative assessment of group landslide risk in hydropower station dam site selection,and taking the analysis of landslide risk and vulnerability into consideration,four index parameters—engineering influence coefficient,importance coefficient,distance modulus and status coefficient of landslides are introduced.A hydropower landslide risk assessment system which considers the landslide status and the influence of human activity on landslide is built based on annual expected loss index.According to a comprehensive assessment method in which the index of dam site safety,the loss index of power output and river dredging caused by river blocking,and the loss index of surge damage are taken as the standard indices,the principle of balance security and economy is used to get the result of the dam site selection with landslide assessment.The improved risk assessment method under the same dimension is adopted;and it is demonstrated that the calculation and analysis are reliable than the traditional method in practice;therefore it can be used as a reference for dam site selection.

关 键 词：滑坡 风险评价 风险指标 坝址比选 

分 类 号：TV212.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]