金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药性发展趋势的logistic模型分析  

Analysis of the Logistic Model of Ciprofloxacin-resistance Trend of Staphylococcus Aureus

作　　者：黄有平[1] 王和[1] 黄晓明[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵阳医学院微生物学教研室,贵阳550004

出　　处：《药物流行病学杂志》2012年第11期540-542,548,共4页Chinese Journal of Pharmacoepidemiology

摘　　要：目的:了解我国金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药性的现状和变迁,探讨logistic模型在分析细菌耐药性发展规律中的应用价值。方法:从中国期刊全文数据库收集1991～2007年中国内地金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药数据,同时收集上海地区部分年份金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药率。应用logistic模型对金黄色葡萄球菌的环丙沙星耐药率数据拟合分析,对拟合结果做适合性拟合优度检验。结果:共收集文献637篇,含金黄色葡萄球菌94 971株,其中41 615株对环丙沙星耐药。对logistic模型拟合金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药率进行适合性检验,得预测值与实际值基本吻合(P<0.05)。结论:1991～2007年中国内地金黄色葡萄球菌的环丙沙星耐药性遵循lo-gistic模型发展。Objective：To investigate the current situation and vicissitudes in ciprofloxacin-resistance to S.aureus and probe for the application value of the logistic model in analyzing the developing trend of drug-resistance of bacteria. Methods：The data of ciprofloxacin - resistance to S.aureus were collected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure （CNKI） published during 1991-2007 years and the data in some years from Shanghai area.The data of ciprofloxacin-resistance to S.aureus were fitted by the logistic model and then the results were evaluated by suitableχ（？） or goodness of fit test. Results：94 971 strains of S.aureus from 637 papers collected were contained.In those strains,41 615 were ciprofloxacin - resistant strains.The logistic model was used to analyze their goodness of fit test,and it could make predicted values accord with acbual values.Conclusion：The ciprofloxacin-resistance of S.aureus in the years of 1991 to 2007 followed its development showed in the logistic model.

关 键 词：金黄色葡萄球菌 耐药趋势 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：R978.1[医药卫生—药品]