基于VAR模型对城镇化、工业化与金融发展变迁的实证分析——广饶案例  

Empirical Analysis of Urbanization,Industrialization and Financial Development Changes Based on VAR Model-Guangrao Case

作　　者：徐小林[1] 刘春华[1] 王树春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行东营市中心支行,山东东营257091

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2012年第12期52-57,共6页Journal Of Financial Development Research

摘　　要：工业化、城镇化是我国经济发展的两大引擎,金融是现代经济的核心,三者之间是相互联系的。本文以广饶县为案例,基于VAR模型对三者之间的因果关系进行实证分析。通过广饶县工业化、城镇化和金融发展的历程比较发现,金融发展对工业化、城镇化起到了积极助推作用,工业发展到一定阶段又进一步促进了金融发展。Industrialization and urbanization are two major engines of China＇s economic development, and finance is the core of modem economy, and the three are inter-related. This article takes Guangrao case as an example, use VAR model to empirically analyze the causal relationship among them. By analyzing the course of Guangrao industrialization, urbanization and financial development experience, we find that financial development is positive boost industrialization and urbanization. Industrial development to certain stage and further promote financial development.

关 键 词：工业化 城镇化 金融发展 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]