Estimating water deficit and its uncertainties in water-scarce area using integrated modeling approach  

作　　者：Shou-ke WEI 

机构地区：[1]Eawag,the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology [2]Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia [3]Emodlogic Technology Inc.

出　　处：《Water Science and Engineering》2012年第4期450-463,共14页水科学与水工程（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Sino-Swiss Science and Technology Cooperation Program of Switzerland;the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2009DFA22980)

摘　　要：Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas.Accurate assessment of water deficit and related uncertainties in water-scarce areas is strategically important in various fields of water resources management. This study developed a hybrid approach integrating conceptual water balance model and econometric regression to estimate water shortage and its related uncertainties in water-scarce areas. This hybrid approach was used to assess the agricultural water deficit of Beijing, an extremely water-scarce area in China. A predictive model of agricultural water demand was developed using the stepwise multiple regression method, and was validated by comparing the predicted values with observed data. Scenario analysis was employed to investigate the uncertainties of agricultural water shortage and agricultural water demand. This modeling approach can assist water administration in creating sustainable water allocation strategies in water-scarce areas.

关 键 词：water deficit hybrid model conceptual water balance model stepwise multipleregression method UNCERTAINTY Beo＇ing 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]