瀑布沟水电站移民新城变形监测与预测分析  

Prediction and Deformation of Pubugou Hydropower Engineering Resettlement

作　　者：张晨艳[1] 何秀凤[1] 贾东振[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学卫星及空间信息应用研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《测绘科学技术学报》2012年第6期422-426,共5页Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2010B08314);国家自然科学基金项目(40974001);江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(CXZZ11_0451)

摘　　要：根据瀑布沟水电站移民场地GPS边坡自动化变形监测系统获得的高边坡变形量时间序列的非线性性质,基于相空间重构理论和最邻近点法预测及其加权预测模式,提出了基于加权模式的多相型综合预测方法;并将该方法应用于瀑布沟水电站移民安置场地GPS监测点边坡变形预测中。从而将移民新城的变形监测与变形量的预测分析相结合,对瀑布沟水电站移民新城的稳定性进行实时监测与预测。实例研究表明:监测系统提供的移民场地变形监测的精度可达到毫米级;多相型综合预测方法具有较高的预测精度和可靠性。从而为边坡的变形预测提供了一种实用有效的方法。According to the nonlinear method of the high slope displacement time series which provided by GPS automated deformation monitoring system, the prediction method of the multi phase space was introduced. It was based on the theory of the phase space reconstruction and the mode of adjacent equidistant and weighted adjacent equidistant. The method was applied to the Pubugou hydropower resettlement and predicted deforma- tion by using GPS monitoring points, The accuracy provided by the GPS deformation monitoring system could reach to the level of millimeter. It was showed that the method of multi phase integrated method had high pre- diction accuracy and it was provided an effective way for the slope deformation forecasting.

关 键 词：变形监测 预测 最邻近点 相空间 多相型综合法 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]