基于广义翁氏模型的煤层气产量预测方法  

Coalbed Methane Production Forecast Method Based on Generalized Weng′s Model

作　　者：吕明晏 石洪福 郑娜 周广言 

机构地区：[1]中石化管道储运分公司天津输油处安全科,天津300451 [2]中海油天津分公司,天津300452 [3]中石油管道局第四工程分公司,河北065000

出　　处：《中国煤层气》2012年第6期35-38,共4页China Coalbed Methane

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40974056);国家科技重大专项(2011ZX05038-004);国家973计划项目(2009219606);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(10CX04011A)

摘　　要：为实现煤层气的低成本高效开发,有必要加强煤层气开采中长期规划工作,以最大限度地降低采气成本,提高经济效益。根据煤层气开采过程中的产量变化规律,将广义翁氏预测模型应用于其产量预测过程,可以实现快速、准确地预测煤层气井产气高峰及其出现时间。将模型计算结果与数值模拟结果进行了对比,二者之间的误差小于5%;在此基础上,根据某实际气井的早期少量的生产数据,利用该模型准确地预测了气井中长期的产量,进一步验证了方法的正确性。从实际应用来看,该方法计算过程简便、预测结果准确,具有一定的应用价值。It is necessary to strengthen the long- term planning for CBM exploration in order to reduce gas extraction cost and improve the economic benefits. According to the process of CBM production, the generalized Weng＇s model is applied to coalbed methane production forecast, and it can rapidly and accu- rately predict the gas peak and the peak time. The errors between this method and the numerical simula- tion method are less than 5%. On the above analysis, the long -term gas production of some well was precisely predicted according to the early production data with this model. From the the practical applica- tion, it can be concluded that the tool is effective and simple to use, as a result, performances more ac- curate prediction.

关 键 词：煤层气 广义翁氏预测模型 线性回归 产量预测 

分 类 号：TD84[矿业工程—煤矿开采]