含水组地下水位变化对地面沉降影响的多元回归分析与预测  

Application of multiple regression analysis and prediction in ground subsidence with water table

作　　者：贾莹媛[1] 黄张裕[1] 张蒙[2] 彭磊 

机构地区：[1]河海大学地球与工程学院,南京210098 [2]江苏师范大学,江苏徐州221116 [3]河北省电力勘测设计院,石家庄050031

出　　处：《工程勘察》2013年第1期77-80,共4页Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

摘　　要：城市地面沉降是对城市规划建设、经济发展和人民生活构成威胁的地质灾害。为了探究地下水位与地面沉降的关系,本文对沧州市沧县各个地下含水组的地下水位变化、最大沉降量进行数据统计分析,建立了该地区基于含水组地下水位的多元回归模型。由模型计算结果可知,该模型适用于预测该城市区域的地面沉降趋势,并且分析各个地下含水组对地面沉降影响的相关程度。结果表明,第Ⅲ含水组地层是沧州市沧县形成地面沉降的最主要因素,为控制该区地面沉降提供了依据。Urban ground subsidence is a geological disaster that constitutes great threat to urban planning construction,economic development and people′s living.In order to study the relation between water table and ground subsidence,this article carries statistical analysis on the water table change of each watery group subsoil and the maximum settlement of Cangzhou Cang county,and a multiple regression model is applied.The results reveal that this model is suitable in predicting ground subsidence tendency in Cang.Finally,the correlation of each watery group with ground subsidence is analyzed,and the result indicated that the third watery group is the most primary factor to the ground subsidence,and it provides basis for controlling ground subsidence in this area.

关 键 词：地面沉降 含水组地下水位 多元回归分析 趋势预测 相关程度 

分 类 号：O141.4[理学—数学]