叙利亚危机的根源及未来政治生态  

The Causes of Syria Crisis and Its Political Scenes in the Future

作　　者：姚大学[1] 闫伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古民族大学世界史研究所,通辽028000 [2]西北大学中东研究所,西安710069

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2012年第6期3-22,共20页West Asia and Africa

基　　金：中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所哲学社会科学创新工程项目“中国对中东战略和大国与中东关系”的阶段性成果

摘　　要：叙利亚自爆发危机以来冲突不断加剧,并日趋陷入内战。这场危机爆发固然有外部因素作祟,但更多源于叙利亚内政外交的缺陷:巴沙尔实行的经济和政治改革非但未能挽救复兴党政权,反而激化了社会矛盾,削弱了统治基础;阿拉伯政治认同具有的传导性,以及亲伊朗外交政策使叙利亚遭到西方国家和海湾国家孤立。从长期来看,叙利亚政治版图将出现"碎片化"的趋势,尚无一派政治力量可以独揽大权。叙利亚各派可能在伊斯兰化还是世俗化、联邦制还是单一制,以及库尔德人权利等问题上交锋,共同绘制叙利亚政治图景。叙利亚的未来不只决定于能否创制出适合国情的制度问题和民族和解,更决定于国际社会的作用。Conflict in Syria is intensifying and increasingly falling into the civil war since the crisis broke out in the country. To some extent, the crisis is a result of foreign factors, but the main reason is the defects of Syria＇ s internal and foreign af- fairs. The economic and political reforms implemented by Bashar al - Asad not only fail to save Ba＇ ath regime, but sharpen the social conflict and weaken the founda- tion of the regime. There＇ s a political conductibility in Syria which comes from Arab political identification. Syria is isolated by Western and Gulf countries owing to its pro - Iran foreign policy. Political scenes of Syria are likely to go to fragmentation in the long run, and there will be no political faction can monopolize the pow- er. Conflicts between Islam and secularism, federalism and unitary system, and the Kurdish issue will happen among political factions in Syria. The future of Syria not only depends on whether Syria can create ditions and national reconciliation, but a political system based on its national con- also depends on the role of international

关 键 词：叙利亚危机 巴沙尔 政治生态 

分 类 号：D737.6[政治法律—政治学]