基于贝叶斯风险决策理论的研发项目风险评估方法  

A Method for Research and Development Project Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Risk Decision Theory

作　　者：张俊光[1] 徐振超[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学,北京100083

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2012年第12期66-70,共5页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金(项目编号:10YJC630384);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(项目编号:FRF-BR-12-007;020);研究型教学项目(项目编号:KC2012YJX28)

摘　　要：为提高研发项目风险评估的精度,研究了一种基于贝叶斯风险决策理论的研发项目风险评估方法。该方法通过建立研发项目风险期望函数,将贝叶斯风险值作为测度风险大小的工具,以量化各种风险,并最终建立了一个基于贝叶斯风险决策理论的研发项目模型。实际应用结果表明,该方法有效地评估了研发项目风险大小,提高了风险评估的客观性和准确性。In order to improve the accuracy of research and development（RD）project risk assessment,a method for research and development project risk assessment based on Bayesian risk decision theory is studied.Through the establishment of research and development project risk expectations function and a risk measurement tool-the degree of Bayesian risk,we can quantify the risk size.Finally,we build a model for research and development project risk assessment based on Bayesian risk decision theory.And the practical application shows that the method effectively evaluated the size of research and development project risk and improved the objectivity and accuracy of project risk assessment.

关 键 词：项目管理 贝叶斯风险决策理论 研发项目 风险评估 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]