基于概率分析的配电网风险评估研究  

Research on Risk Assessment of Distribution Networks Based on Probability Analysils

作　　者：罗少杰[1] 应康[1] 李晓波[2] 汪新园[2] 谢胤喆[2] 

机构地区：[1]杭州市电力局,杭州310009 [2]浙江大学电气工程学院,杭州310027

出　　处：《浙江电力》2012年第12期9-11,共3页Zhejiang Electric Power

摘　　要：介绍了杭州配电网运行风险分析及辅助决策系统的主要功能和特点。引入风险理论,基于CIME语言和状态枚举算法,设计了基于概率分析的配电网风险指标评估和综合星级评定方案,可以对检修进行量化评估。结合电网预想故障的后果分析,定量描述了配电网的运行风险情况。实际运行情况表明,该系统可以有效指导电网运行。The main functions and features of risk analysis and decision support system of Hangzhou distribution networks are introduced. By introduction of risk theory and on the basis of CIME and state enumerating algorithm, risk index assessment and comprehensive star-rated assessment scheme is established for quantitative assessment on overhauling. In combination with consequence analysis of contingency in power grid, the paper describes operational risks of distribution networks. The practical operating experience shows that the system can effectively guide the operation of power grid.

关 键 词：配电网 辅助决策系统 风险评估 风险指标 静态安全分析 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]