地震“突变震源”说  

On catastrophe focus theory of earthquake

作　　者：冯永革[1] 陈立成[2] 吴发恩[2] 马文涛[3] 赵鸿儒[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学地球物理系,北京100871 [2]北京交通大学理学院,北京100044 [3]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2012年第6期2395-2406,共12页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11171016)资助

摘　　要：大地震是一种自然灾害.我们研究地震成因,其目的为了地震预报.本文由组成地球物质的化学元素出发,在简单论述理论依据等的基础上,提出构造地震震源地球物质综合化学物理性质变化为主导,由渐变到突变至发震的"突变震源"基本思想;揭示地震可预报性的根本依据是"地震异常变化参数";主张全面地科学地"综合预报地震方法"."突变震源"说,还可用于其它类型地震机制基础之解释.文末采用模拟实验手段具体说明"突变震源"说之地震可预报性的思想、理论与方法.综上所述,本文指出地震成因等问题的研究新方向和地震可预报性.he large earthquake is a large natural disaster.We study the cause of earthquake for forecasting the earthquake.This paper starts with chemical elements of earth material,on the basis of discussing the evidence of theory,and the basic condition of the focus mechanism of the tectonic earthquake,a new concept Catastrophe Focus Theory is put forward.Take example for one of the Catastrophe event to guess the change of self-ignite（or temperature rise） of earth material at earthquake focus,this paper discusses the change mechanism of catastrophe focus is the comprehensive chemical and physical properties changes of earth material,and from gradual change to break and earthquake happen.The Catastrophe Focus Theory can be used to explain other style earthquake.The different character is all earthquake have different mechanism of earthquake focus and condition of earthquake happen,but they have same character that earth material of earthquake focus is made up of more chemical elements.When they are together and have proper condition,they have the comprehensive chemical and physical properties changes and abnormity earthquake changes that is relate to mechanism character of different style earthquake,and have the change of from gradual change to break and earthquake happen.This paper posts ultimate evidence of the feasibility of earthquake prediction is the parameter of the comprehensive chemical and physical properties abnormity changes of the earth material at earthquake focus;this paper protest the method of comprehensive earthquake prediction： people can observe the parameter of abnormity earthquake changes by scientific instrument;combine previous impressions knowledge of earthquake forecast with experience,and use the multi-parameter method to analyze and process the observation data comprehensively,distinguish the abnormity information relate to earthquake,supple trustiness evidence for earthquake prediction and be propitious to ensure accuracy of earthquake prediction.At the end of this paper we elaborate on t

关 键 词：突变震源说 地球物质 化学变化 物理变化 非均匀性 差异性 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]