经济发展与环境污染空间面板数据分析  

Economic Development and Environmental Pollution Space Panel Data Analysis

作　　者：王火根[1,2] 滕玉华[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经管学院,江西南昌330045 [2]正邦集团,江西南昌330096

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2013年第2期85-89,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71263024);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(11YJC790167);江西省社科规划办基金项目(10YJ52);江西省高校人文社会科学基金项目(GL1224;JJ1225)

摘　　要：本文试图揭示中国经济发展与环境污染之间的空间扩散关系。根据Stem(2002)的模型,以SO2排放量来表征环境污染水平,利用MATLAB软件对2000-2010年间中国30个省、直辖市及自治区(西藏由于数据不全)的PANEL DATA进行面板回归分析,回归结果表明:SO2污染物质的排放与经济发展存在空间自相关,经济规模扩大、工业产业比重提高和贸易顺差会加剧我国环境污染,生产技术创新会降低我国环境污染,并估算了这四个要素对环境质量影响的各自实际贡献率。这一实证结果对于完善我国节能减排长效机制和制定相关环境保护政策、促进经济可持续发展战略具有重要的指导意义。This paper tries to disclose the relationship of economic development and environment. Deriving from Stem Model, this paper takes SO2 emission as an environmental pollution index and applies regression analysis to 30 provinces ＆ municipal cities＇panel data except Tibet in our country from 2000 to 2010. The results show that the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve takes place at income and pollution levels above those corresponding to the social optimum. We find that enlargement of economic scale, changes of industrial structure and gross value of import ＆ export can add environmental pollution while renovation and generalization of environmental protection technology reduce environmental pollution. And factual contribution rates of the four factors are estimated respectively. This result urges a more effective policy orientation on sustainable development strategy formulation.

关 键 词：经济增长 环境污染 空间自相关 环境治理 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]