滇西实验场地震短临动态跟踪综合预测方案  

A dynamic tracing and comprehensive decision-making scheme for short-term and imminent earthquake prediction in the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area(WYEPSA)

作　　者：杨芬[1] 吴国华[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局滇西地震预报实验场,大理671000 [2]云南省地震局监测预报处,昆明650224

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2012年第12期8-15,共8页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：对滇西实验场1992年以来前兆观测资料进行分析研究,选取映震效果通过R信度检验(对应M≥5.0地震)的8条单项前兆指标,综合考虑单项前兆指标虚报率和漏报率对指标信度的影响,对单项前兆指标利用数学模型进行综合处理,减少了虚报和漏报的次数,预测效果明显提高。综合预测方案不仅提高了地震短临预测信度,并提供了地点判定原则和震级估算原则。利用分级预警模式分别建立了中短期和短临预测模型,短临预测时间严格控制在3个月内,尽最大可能实现地震短临预测。本综合预测方案具有较好的可操作性,可实时动态跟踪地震危险性,提供地震短临预测三要素。By analyzing relationships between the observed precursory data and the earthquakes of M≥5.0 since 1992 in WYEPSA, we pick out 8 one-item precursory indicators which can pass R-test, and compute their respective weights based on its＂ false-report ratios and fail-to-report ratios. It is proposed a dynamic tracing and decision-making scheme for short-term and imminent earthquake prediction in the Western Yunnan Earthquake Predic- tion Study Area （WYEPSA） based on a synthetic mathematical model in which each weight and corresponding ratio of 8 indicators is taken into account. This comprehensive predicting scheme not only improves the time reliability of short-term and imminent earthquake predic- tion, but also provides the principles of circling the potential risk area and estimating magni- tude of predicted earthquake. Using this scheme we grade earthquake prediction into two models which are medium-term （within 6 months）, short-term or imminent （within 3 months）. Short-term or imminent prediction is realized as far as possible by this scheme. The scheme is easy to operate and can perform dynamic tracing. It can also provide three ele- ments of the short-term or imminent earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地震短临预测 地震三要素 分级预警 综合预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]