国际金融危机、区域市场分割与工业结构升级——基于1985—2010年省际面板数据的实证分析  

International Financial Crisis,Regional Market Segmentation and Upgrading of Chinese Industrial Structure——Based on an Estimation of Provincial Panel Data from 1985 to 2010

作　　者：郭勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省社会科学院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2013年第1期19-31,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：2012年湖南省社会科学基金重大招标项目“湖南加快推进新型工业化的多点支撑体系研究”(批准号12ZDA01);2012年湖南省社会科学院学科建设重点委托课题“开放条件的湖南工业结构优化升级研究”(批准号12HN006)

摘　　要：本文采用1985--2010年的省际面板数据，通过两阶段最小二乘法实证检验了国际金融危机和区域市场分割对工业结构升级的影响。实证结果表明，国际金融危机加剧了中国区域市场的分割，且作用是即期的；而国际金融危机和区域市场分割对工业结构升级的影响作用具有时段性和时滞性。进一步分析发现，国际金融危机与区域市场分割对工业全要素生产率的影响效应存在明显的区域差异。在本轮国际金融危机持续期，受国际金融危机影响程度大的直辖市和沿海地区，区域市场分割度较低，工业全要素生产率较高：受国际金融危机影响程度较小的西南部地区，区域市场分割度高，工业全要素生产率低：受国际金融危机影响程度较大的东北部地区，区域市场分割度较高，工业全要素生产率较低：受国际金融危机影响程度较小的西北部地区，区域市场分割度一直较高，但工业全要素生产率较高：受国际金融危机影响程度小的中部地区，区域市场分割度较低，工业全要素生产率也较低。Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1985 to 2010, the study estimates the effects of international financial crisis and regional market segmentation on the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure by adopting two stage least squares method （TSLS）. The results show that, the international financial crisis has intensified the regional market segmentation and the effect is spot, while the impacts of these two factors on provincial industrial structure upgrading have time-stage differences and lag features. Further analysis indicates that, the impacts of international financial crisis and regional market segmentation on industrial total factor productivity presents obvious regional differences. During this crisis periods, in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and coastal areas which greatly affected by financial crisis and have low market segmentation, the total factor productivity of them are high. In the southwestern areas which slightly influenced by financial crisis and have high market segmentation, the total factor productivity are low. In the northeastern areas which significantly affected by financial crisis and have high market segmentation, the total factor productivity are low. In the northwestern areas which slightly influenced by financial crisis and have high market segmentation for a long time, the total factor productivity are high. In central which slightly influenced by financial crisis and have low market segmentation, the total factor productivity are low.

关 键 词：国际金融危机 区域市场分割 工业全要素生产率 工业结构升级 

分 类 号：F421[经济管理—产业经济]