地区二氧化碳排放与经济发展——基于脱钩理论和CKC的实证分析  

Regional Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Development——An Empirical Analysis Based on Decoupling Theory and CKC

作　　者：王佳[1] 杨俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2013年第1期8-18,共11页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"天然气资源的经济安全重大问题与对策研究"(71133007);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"经济不平等与环境质量"(NCET-10-0883)

摘　　要：结合Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型，确认了经济发展水平是影响二氧化碳排放的首要因素，并将化石能源细分为17种（考虑了水泥生产），估算了1997-2010年各省的二氧化碳排放指标，分别从省际、东中西部、八大经济区域视角，利用脱钩指数和CKC方法进行了实证研究。结果表明：中国地区经济发展与C02排放并未实现脱钩；对于人均CO2排放量，大部分地区存在CKC，但基本上都未达到拐点，也就是处于上升阶段；对于CO2排放强度，大部分地区存在u形曲线；CKC在中国的适用性有待于进一步的观察。This paper confirms that economic development plays a key role in regional carbon dioxide emissions. Using decou- plod index and Carbon Kuznets Curve, the authors make an empirical research on regional economic development and carbon dioxide emissions from the three perspectives of provincial-level, east-central-west, and the eight economic regions. The results indicate Chi- nese regional economic development and carbon dioxide emissions have not realized decoupling; most regions have Carbon Kuznets Curve, which basically did not reach the inflection point i.e. was upswing, towards per capita carbon dioxide emissions; while these regions almost showed U-shaped curve to carbon dioxide emission intensity; applicability of Carbon Kuznets Curve needs further analysis in China.

关 键 词：二氧化碳排放 经济发展 脱钩 碳库兹涅茨曲线(CKC) 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]