基于VAR模型的东北区域经济增长研究  

The VAR Model-based Study of Economic Growth in the Northeast Region of China

作　　者：齐昕[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《石家庄经济学院学报》2012年第6期31-35,共5页Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics

摘　　要：基于经典"经济增长"和"区域相互依赖"理论,选取1993年—2010年黑龙江、吉林、辽宁三省数据以及经济增长相关指标,建立度量东北地区经济增长需求倚重以及三省之间增长联动性的向量自回归模型体系。分别考察各省金融、人力、资本三要素对经济增长的动态冲击以及三省之间经济增长的动态联动性,依此为东北经济的协调发展提出针对建议。研究表明,东北区域经济增长具有长期协整关系:各省金融、人力、资本三要素在不同时间段内对经济增长的贡献各异;在区域经济增长关联性方面,辽宁对黑龙江、吉林两省的经济增长有一定带动作用,而黑龙江、吉林两省之间以及二者对辽宁的经济增长带动作用不大。Based on the classical theory of economic growth and Regional mutually dependent theory,This study chooses the data and relevant index of economic growth during the time slot of 1993-2010 in Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning provinces to set up the VAR Models for measuring the impact of finance,labor force and capital on economic growth for each province and the dynamic relevance of economic growth among three provinces in order to give suggestion to balance development between regions.The results indicate that there exists cointegration relationship among three provinces.The contribution of influencing factors to economic growth in different provinces is not the same.Relevant to the economic growth,Liaoning Province can lead the economic growth of the other two provinces,but is not the case in other two provinces.

关 键 词：向量自回归模型 经济增长 区域经济增长关联性 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]