中国地区经济差距与产业布局的空间关联性——基于Moran指数的解释  

Regional Disparities and the Industrial Spatial Agglomeration in China——An Explanation Based on Moran Index

作　　者：袁冬梅[1,2] 魏后凯[2] 于斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,湖南长沙410081 [2]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国软科学》2012年第12期90-102,共13页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"贸易促使我国地区差异扩大的机理与协调区域发展的对策研究"(编号:08CJL019);国家社科基金青年项目(编号:09CJL024)的共同资助

摘　　要：本文在对地区差距进行产业分解的基础上,运用空间统计的Moran指数分析方法,分析了1997-2008年间我国31省区市制造业和服务业空间集聚的结构特征与变化趋势。研究发现,东部与中西部制造业和服务业空间集聚呈现出明显的两极化发展趋势,且在极化区域内通过集聚的路径依赖与累积循环机制,影响地区差距的演变。尽管以上海为中心形成的强强集聚区产生了正向增长极效应,但这不足以短期内完全打破两极化发展的分化现象。与以往研究不同的是,本文考虑到了制造业和服务业融合发展的事实与趋势,发现服务业对地区差距的贡献日益强化并可能成长为主导因素。因此,从长远发展看,要缩小地区差距,应加快东部地区产业转型升级,强化三大增长极的辐射效应;同时,应充分发挥中西部地区优势,优化投资环境,培育强势产业,积极加强与东部地区的产业分工合作,培育形成一批新的增长极。On the basis of decomposing Gini coefficient among regions,this paper analyses the agglomeration characters and evolution of manufacturing and services industries in 31 Chinese provinces during the years 1997-2008 by using Moran index analysis method.The result suggests that the overall spatial agglomeration of manufacturing and services in our country exhibits the trend of polarization in the east and the rest part of China,which dominates the evolution of regional disparities by means of the path-dependent and the cumulative circulating mechanism caused by agglomeration.Although Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang have developed into the positive growth pole areas,they are not strong enough to change the polarization trend.Different from other papers,this paper explores the linkage growth of manufacturing and services industries,and argues that the service industry may be the dominant force in the evolution of regional disparities in the future.In order to reducing regional disparities,it is better for the east to work hard to transform the mode of industry development and to increase the radiation effect of the three growth pole areas.Meanwhile,it is urgent to encourage the middle and the west to foster the competitive industries and optimize investment environment,strengthen cooperation with the east and foster new regional growth poles.

关 键 词：地区经济差距 MORAN指数 集聚效应 辐射效应 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]