珠三角地区前后汛期强对流过程物理量指数对比分析及阈值选取  

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF INDICES OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE CASES IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST AND SECOND FLOODING SEASONS OF THE PEARL RIVER DELTA AND THE CHOICE OF THRESHOLDS

作　　者：庞古乾[1] 伍志方[1] 叶爱芬[1] 谌志刚[1] 刘运策[1] 孙广凤[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州中心气象台,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2012年第6期919-923,共5页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目"珠江三角洲中小尺度气象灾害监测预警技术研究";中国气象局华南区域气象中心气象业务系统开放实验室(2011A030200015);国家自然科学基金(410750040);广东省科技计划项目"东江流域(水库)旱涝灾害监测与预报系统";中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CAMGJ2012Z02)共同资助

摘　　要：珠江三角洲(简称珠三角)地区前汛期强对流是由锋面系统引起,后汛期强对流则多由热力系统引起。利用2004—2006年探空资料计算的物理量,选取与强对流天气相关性好的大气温湿类(整层比湿积分IQ)、层结稳定度类(K指数)、动力类(潜在下冲气流指数MDPI)、热力动力综合类(瑞士第一雷暴指数SWISS00)作为指示因子,通过对各指数的分布特征进行对比分析,分别得到珠三角地区前、后汛期的物理量指数的阈值,为进一步做好珠三角地区未来12小时强对流预报服务。In the Pearl River Delta, severe convective weather is mostly caused by frontal systems in the annually first flooding season and by tropical systems in the annually second flooding season. Based on radiosonde data from 2004--2006, some indices and parameters, including IQ, K index, Microburst-Day Potential Index （MDPI）, and SWISS00 index, were selected as predictors. By comparatively analyzing the distributions of the indices, we obtained the thresholds of the indices in the first and the second flooding seasons of the Pearl River Delta for better service of 12-h severe weather forecasting over the Pearl River Delta.

关 键 词：物理量 对比分析 阈值选取 珠江三角洲 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]